Opinion polling for the 1979 Spanish general election

In the run up to the 1979 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the Constituent Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 15 June 1977, to the day the next election was held, on 1 March 1979.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Electoral polling

Nationwide polling

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout UCD PSOE PCE CD PSP CiU PNV UN Lead
1979 general election 1 Mar 1979 — 68.0 34.8
168 		30.4
121 		10.8
23 		6.1
9 		[a] 2.7
8 		1.6
7 		2.1
1 		4.4
Government[1] 1 Mar 1979 ? ? 34.6
168/172 		29.8
114/118 		10.8
25 		5.5
8 		[a] 2.6
10 		1.6
8 		2.0
1 		4.8
SFGPP/Ya[2] 26 Feb 1979 16,817 ? 33.1
166 		31.9
132 		8.2
25 		6.3
7 		[a] – ?
8 		– 1.2
Sofemasa/El País[b][3][4][5] 19–21 Feb 1979 16,869 77.7 32.9
153 		35.0
140 		11.0
22 		6.3
9 		[a] 1.8
5 		1.7
7 		2.3
2 		2.1
PSOE[6] 18 Feb 1979 ? 65 28.0–
32.0 		31.0–
35.0 		– – [a] – – – 3.0
Equipo Eidos/Europa Press[7] 12–14 Feb 1979 3,700 ? 34.0
167 		32.0
132 		12.0
21 		7.0
14 		[a] 2.9
7 		1.6
7 		– 2.0
RNC/ABC[b][8] 7 Feb 1979 2,999 73 30.6 32.3 12.9 11.3 [a] – 2.7 – 1.7
PSOE[6] 1 Feb 1979 ? 65 27.0–
32.0 		32.0–
37.0 		– – [a] – – – 5.0
Sofemasa/El País[9][10] 30–31 Jan 1979 2,000 ? 30.6 33.5 9.3 3.7 [a] – – 1.8 2.9
ICSA–Gallup/El Periódico[11] 2–29 Nov 1978 2,200 ? 27.3 38.7 10.8 3.8 [a] – – – 11.4
Sofemasa/El País[12][13] 9–11 Jun 1978 2,000 ? 28.5 33.6 9.7 7.1 [a] – – – 5.1
Diario 16[14] 10 Mar 1978 ? 79 29.0–
31.0 		38.0–
40.0 		6.0–
8.0 		6.0–
8.0 		6.0–
8.0 		– – – 9.0
1977 general election 15 Jun 1977 — 78.8 34.4
165 		29.3
118 		9.3
20 		8.3
16 		4.5
6 		2.8
11 		1.6
8 		0.5
0 		5.1

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size UCD PSOE PCE CD PSP CiU PNV UN Question? ☒N Lead
1979 general election 1 Mar 1979 — 23.4 20.4 7.2 4.1 [a] 1.8 1.1 1.4 — 32.0 4.4
Sofemasa/El País[3] 19–21 Feb 1979 16,869 21.5 22.9 7.2 3.3 [a] 1.2 1.1 1.5 23.2 11.4 1.4
CIS[15] 1–10 Feb 1979 24,395 14.6 14.0 4.4 2.2 [a] 0.6 1.0 0.6 54.2 4.3 0.6
RNC/ABC[8] 7 Feb 1979 2,999 19.0 20.0 8.0 7.0 [a] – 1.7 – 38.0 1.0
ICSA–Gallup/ABC[8] 7 Feb 1979 2,600 19.0 29.0 6.0 8.0 [a] [c] – 1.0 30.0 10.0
CIS[16] 25 Jan–3 Feb 1979 25,516 14.3 14.5 4.4 2.0 [a] 0.7 0.8 0.5 55.7 4.2 0.2
Sofemasa/El País[9] 30–31 Jan 1979 2,000 18.4 21.0 5.9 2.3 [a] – – 1.1 32.3 8.8 2.6
CIS[17] 19–22 Jan 1979 1,188 18.5 17.5 3.1 2.6 [a] 0.5 0.8 – 50.2 3.1 1.0
CIS[18] 1 Jan 1979 1,170 18.0 16.0 4.0 3.0 [a] 1.0 0.0 – 51.0 4.0 2.0
CIS[19] 17–19 Dec 1978 1,188 24.0 28.0 6.0 3.0 [a] 1.0 2.0 – 18.0 13.0 4.0
CIS[20] 10–12 Dec 1978 987 23.5 19.4 4.0 3.3 [a] 0.7 0.4 – 41.7 2.2 4.1
CIS[21] 1 Dec 1978 1,196 21.2 19.5 4.4 4.7 [a] 0.8 0.8 – 39.8 3.5 1.7
CIS[22] 20–23 Nov 1978 1,166 18.7 18.8 4.2 2.7 [a] 0.6 1.5 – 45.2 4.2 0.1
CIS[23] 13–16 Nov 1978 1,183 18.4 19.5 3.7 2.0 [a] 0.3 0.7 – 46.5 4.6 1.1
CIS[24] 6–9 Nov 1978 1,189 20.4 18.3 3.8 2.4 [a] 1.2 1.3 – 42.5 4.9 2.1
CIS[25] 1 Nov 1978 5,716 18.0 20.0 4.0 3.0 [a] 1.0 0.0 – 46.0 5.0 2.0
CIS[26] 23–26 Oct 1978 1,169 17.2 19.2 4.1 3.9 [a] 0.3 1.5 – 42.4 8.0 2.0
CIS[27] 16–18 Oct 1978 1,190 20.2 17.5 4.2 3.7 [a] 1.6 1.4 – 37.2 9.3 2.7
CIS[28] 9–11 Oct 1978 1,196 19.2 21.0 4.9 3.1 [a] 0.1 0.8 – 40.8 7.4 1.8
CIS[29] 27–30 Sep 1978 1,184 16.3 19.3 4.9 3.9 [a] 0.8 0.8 – 40.3 9.2 3.0
CIS[30] 18–26 Sep 1978 1,216 13.8 27.2 9.4 5.3 [a] 1.9 1.6 – 22.8 12.4 13.4
CIS[31] 24–26 Jul 1978 1,181 20.1 24.7 6.4 3.3 [a] 0.8 1.4 – 25.0 13.8 4.6
CIS[32] 10–12 Jul 1978 5,350 15.2 22.5 6.2 5.0 [a] – 1.1 – 39.4 6.2 3.0
CIS[33] 1 Jul 1978 1,199 17.0 31.0 7.0 3.0 [a] 2.0 1.0 – 24.0 10.0 14.0
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[34][35] 1–16 Feb 1978 2,035 17.2 27.8 4.9 2.9 5.7 2.2 1.0 – 33.6 10.6
CIS[36] 1 Jan 1978 5,653 19.0 20.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 – 36.0 8.0 1.0
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[34] 1–16 Dec 1977 2,037 17.8 28.2 6.1 3.4 5.0 1.6 1.5 – 30.2 10.4
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[37] 18 Nov 1977 2,134 18.2 30.5 5.8 3.1 5.7 3.0 2.0 – 26.5 12.3
ICSA–Gallup/Diario 16[38] 17–29 Oct 1977 2,134 17.0 32.4 6.6 3.1 6.0 2.9 1.7 0.4 24.3 15.4
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[34] 3–14 Oct 1977 1,944 17.3 31.4 6.3 3.0 6.1 2.9 1.9 – 25.4 14.1
CIS[39] 17–18 Sep 1977 1,554 24.0 24.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 – – 31.0 Tie
1977 general election 15 Jun 1977 — 26.8 22.8 7.3 6.4 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.4 — 21.2 4.0

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai Within PSOE.
  2. ^ a b Undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.
  3. ^ Within UCD.

References

  1. ^ "El Gobierno estima en 170 los escaños de UCD y en 116 los del PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 2 March 1979.
  2. ^ "UCD, 166 escaños; PSOE, 132" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 23 February 1979.
  3. ^ a b "Apretada victoria de UCD frente a los socialistas, que gana posiciones". El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
  4. ^ "Izquierdas y derechas se reparten el electorado casi al cincuenta por ciento" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 27 February 1979.
  5. ^ "Votos y posibles escaños en cada provincia" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 27 February 1979.
  6. ^ a b "El PSOE se prepara para gobernar" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 23 February 1979.
  7. ^ "UCD aventaja al PSOE en dos puntos". ABC (in Spanish). 22 February 1979.
  8. ^ a b c "Dos sondeos electorales en ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 7 February 1979.
  9. ^ a b "Equilibrio entre UCD y PSOE, con ligera ventaja socialista". El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
  10. ^ "Centristas y socialistas se distancian del resto de las fuerzas políticas" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
  11. ^ "Ante las municipales: PSOE, 38,7%; UCD, 27,3%". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 17 December 1978.
  12. ^ "El PSOE aventaja a UCD". El País (in Spanish). 15 June 1978.
  13. ^ "Aumenta la tendencia hacia la izquierda y existen muchos indecisos" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 15 June 1978.
  14. ^ "¿Crisis del "suarismo"?" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 10 March 1978.
  15. ^ "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1979 (II) (Estudio nº 1183. Febrero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 10 February 1979.
  16. ^ "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1979 (I) (Estudio nº 1181. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 3 February 1979.
  17. ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (V) (Estudio nº 1182. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 January 1979.
  18. ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (IV) (Estudio nº 1179. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1979.
  19. ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (III) (Estudio nº 1178. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 1978.
  20. ^ "Postreferéndum sobre la Constitución (Estudio nº 1177. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 12 December 1978.
  21. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (IX) (Estudio nº 1176. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 December 1978.
  22. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (VIII) (Estudio nº 1175. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 23 November 1978.
  23. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (VII) (Estudio nº 1172. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 16 November 1978.
  24. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (VI) (Estudio nº 1170. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 November 1978.
  25. ^ "Cuestiones de actualidad política (Estudio nº 1165. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 November 1978.
  26. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (V) (Estudio nº 1168. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 October 1978.
  27. ^ "Relaciones internacionales (Estudio nº 1167. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 18 October 1978.
  28. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (IV) (Estudio nº 1166. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 October 1978.
  29. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (III) (Estudio nº 1160. Septiembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 30 September 1978.
  30. ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (II) (Estudio nº 1164. Septiembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 September 1978.
  31. ^ "Constitución y elecciones (II) (Estudio nº 1163. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 July 1978.
  32. ^ "Partidos políticos (Estudio nº 1157. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 12 July 1978.
  33. ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (I) (Estudio nº 1161. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 1978.
  34. ^ a b c "Suben los indecisos y baja la izquierda" (PDF). Informaciones (in Spanish). 28 February 1978.
  35. ^ "Un tercio de la población no sabría a qué partido votar". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 February 1978.
  36. ^ "Cuestiones de actualidad (XIV) (Estudio nº 1141. Enero 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1978.
  37. ^ "Avance socialista ante las elecciones municipales" (PDF). Informaciones (in Spanish). 18 November 1977.
  38. ^ "El 57 por 100 de los españoles, de izquierdas" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 4 January 1978.
  39. ^ "Indulto y amnistía (III) (Estudio nº 1139. Septiembre 1977)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 18 September 1977.
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