October 2022 Conservative Party leadership election

British leadership election to replace Liz Truss

October 2022 Conservative Party leadership election
← July–September 2022 24 October 2022
 
Candidate Rishi Sunak
Popular vote Unopposed
Leader before election

Liz Truss

 Elected Leader

Rishi Sunak

The October 2022 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered by Liz Truss's announcement that she would resign as Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, amid an economic and political crisis.[1][2]

In the 2019 Conservative Party leadership election, Boris Johnson was elected to succeed Theresa May after she had been unable to secure a majority for her Brexit withdrawal agreement. After having lost his working majority to defections and his own suspensions of rebel Members of Parliament, Johnson called a general election on a platform of completing the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. In that general election, the Conservative Party won their biggest majority in Parliament since 1987, and Johnson was able to pass a revised version of May's withdrawal agreement. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, Johnson and his government had instituted public health restrictions, including limitations on social interaction, that Johnson and some of his staff were later found to have broken. The resulting political scandal (Partygate), one of many in a string of controversies that characterised Johnson's premiership, severely damaged his personal reputation. Johnson won a confidence vote by Conservative MPs in June 2022. The situation escalated with the Chris Pincher scandal in July 2022, and between 5 and 7 July, more than 60 government ministers, parliamentary private secretaries, trade envoys, and party vice-chairmen resigned in what was the largest mass resignation in British history. Many previously supportive MPs called for Johnson to resign. This brought about a government crisis, culminating on 7 July, when Johnson announced his resignation.[3]

In the July-September 2022 Conservative Party leadership election, Truss was elected to succeed Johnson. Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced large-scale tax cuts and borrowing in a mini-budget, which was widely criticised and largely reversed, having led to financial instability. Truss dismissed Kwarteng without explanation on 14 October and appointed Jeremy Hunt to succeed him. On the evening of 19 October, MPs voted to reject a motion which would guarantee parliamentary time for a bill to ban fracking in the UK. The vote was controversial as it was unclear whether a three-line-whip had been issued to Conservative MPs, ordering them to vote against it. Following these events, together with mounting criticism and loss of confidence in her leadership, Truss announced her resignation on 20 October, which made her the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.

Following a change of rules by the 1922 Committee, each potential leader needed the support of at least 100 MPs to be a candidate in the vote, with a deadline of 2 pm on 24 October to secure enough nominations.[4] Two candidates put their names forward: Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the House of Commons and Lord President of the Council, and Rishi Sunak, former Chancellor of the Exchequer. Johnson was expected to enter the contest; it was stated he had exceeded the required number of MP backers but nevertheless decided not to stand. On 24 October, Mordaunt withdrew from the contest less than two minutes before the deadline for nominations,[5] leaving Sunak the only candidate in the contest and enabling him to become party leader without a ballot of MPs or party members.[6] He assumed the premiership on 25 October.

Background

Boris Johnson premiership and scandals

Boris Johnson announces his pending resignation outside 10 Downing Street on 7 July 2022; he left office on 6 September.

In the 2019 Conservative Party leadership election, Boris Johnson was elected to succeed Theresa May after she had been unable to secure a majority for her Brexit withdrawal agreement. After having lost his working majority to defections and his own suspensions of rebel Members of Parliament, Johnson called a general election on a platform of completing the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. In that general election, the Conservative Party won their biggest majority in Parliament since 1987, and Johnson was able to pass a revised version of May's withdrawal agreement.

Less than two months after the 2019 general election, cases of COVID-19 had reached the UK, and Johnson himself was hospitalised with the disease in March 2020.[7] The government responded to the pandemic in March 2020 by enacting emergency powers and widespread societal measures including several lockdowns, and approved a vaccination programme which began in December 2020.[8] Reception for Johnson's leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic was mixed.[9] The media later reported that there had been social gatherings by the Conservative Party and government staff which contravened COVID-19 restrictions.[10] Johnson was personally implicated, and he, his wife Carrie Johnson, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, were given fixed penalty notices by the police in April 2022, becoming the first prime minister to be sanctioned for a criminal action while in office.[11] Public dissatisfaction over the events led to a decline in public support for Johnson, the government led by him, and the Conservative Party as a whole.[12]

The publishing of the Sue Gray report in May 2022 and a widespread sense of dissatisfaction led in June 2022 to a vote of confidence in his leadership among Conservative MPs, which he won.[13][14] In late June 2022, the Conservative MP Chris Pincher resigned as deputy chief government whip after an allegation was made that he had sexually assaulted two men.[15] Johnson initially refused to suspend the whip from him, and his spokesperson said Johnson had not been aware of "specific allegations" against Pincher.[16] On 4 July, Johnson's spokesperson said that Johnson was aware of allegations that were "either resolved or did not proceed to a formal complaint" at the time he appointed him.[17] Several ministers resigned on 5 July, including Sunak and health secretary Sajid Javid.[18] Following dozens of government resignations, Johnson announced on 7 July his intention to resign. Voting in the July–September 2022 Conservative Party leadership election took place between 13 July and 2 September. After a series of MP ballots, the list of candidates was narrowed down to Liz Truss, who served as Foreign Secretary and Minister for Women and Equalities under Johnson's leadership, and Rishi Sunak, who served as Chancellor of the Exchequer until 5 July.

Liz Truss premiership

Truss in front of her lectern at 10 Downing Street
Truss giving her first speech as prime minister on 6 September 2022
Truss outside 10 Downing Street, standing at a wooden lectern
Truss giving her resignation speech as Conservative leader on 20 October 2022
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Post-premiership
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Liz Truss's signature
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On 10 July Truss announced her intention to run in the leadership election to replace Johnson. She pledged to cut taxes, said she would "fight the election as a Conservative and govern as a Conservative" and would take "immediate action to help people deal with the cost of living".[19] She said she would cancel a planned rise in corporation tax and reverse the increase in National Insurance rates, funded by delaying the date by which the national debt was planned to fall, as part of a "long-term plan to bring down the size of the state and the tax burden".[20] The political scientist Vernon Bogdanor said in a 2022 article that "[Truss] appreciated that winning over the membership required not detailed policy proposals but the creation of a mood".[21]

Truss received 50 votes on the first of Conservative MPs' 5 ballots, with the number of votes cast for her increasing in each;[22] on 20 July[23] Truss and Sunak were chosen by the parliamentary party to be put forward to the membership for the final leadership vote, with Truss receiving 113 votes to Sunak's 137.[24] In the membership vote, the leader of the 1922 Committee,[n 1] Graham Brady, announced on 5 September that 43 per cent of ballots were for Sunak and 57 per cent for Truss, making her the new leader.[26] In Truss's victory speech, she said that she would deliver on her campaign promises and pledged to win a "great victory" for the Conservatives at the next general election.[26]

Truss was appointed as prime minister by Elizabeth II at Balmoral Castle on 6 September 2022 and began to select her cabinet ministers.[27][28][29] Her cabinet was composed almost entirely of those who had supported her during the leadership contest.[30]

Domestic policies and mini-budget

On 8 September, in response to the ongoing cost of living crisis, Truss announced the Energy Price Guarantee, which was planned to cap average household energy bills at £2,500 per year,[31] costing between 31 and £140 billion for the two years it covered.[32][33][34][35] Truss, who announced the measure in the House of Commons, made an effort to keep the energy cap and the tax plan announcements—which the Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng was planned to unveil—separate.[36]

On 23 September Kwarteng announced a controversial mini-budget which proposed cutting taxation significantly, including abolishing the 45 per cent rate of income tax and the proposed Health and Social Care Levy, cutting stamp duty and the basic rate of income tax and cancelling rises in National Insurance contributions and corporation tax;[37] the package, which had been constructed by Truss and Kwarteng together,[38] was to be funded by borrowing and was intended to stimulate growth.[39][40][41] The mini-budget was received badly by financial markets because it included temporary spending measures whilst permanently cutting tax rates.[42] It was blamed for the pound falling to its lowest ever rate against the US dollar (US$1.033)[43] and prompted a response from the Bank of England which, amongst other measures, bought up government bonds; the public reaction was also broadly negative.[44][45][46] The mini-budget was criticised by the International Monetary Fund,[47][48] the US president Joe Biden,[49] the Labour Party and many within Truss's party, including the senior politicians Michael Gove and Grant Shapps.[50][51]

Government crisis and resignation

I think it's a shambles and a disgrace ... I hope all those people that put Liz Truss in Number 10, I hope it was worth it. I hope it was worth it for the ministerial red box, I hope it was worth it to sit round the Cabinet table because the damage they have done to our party is extraordinary.

Charles Walker's remarks on the market fallout, subsequent government crisis and Conservative unpopularity.[52][53]

After initially defending the mini-budget, on 3 October Truss instructed Kwarteng to reverse the abolition of the 45 per cent income tax additional rate.[54] She later reversed the cut in corporation tax and dismissed Kwarteng, replacing him with Jeremy Hunt on 14 October.[51] Hunt reversed many of the remaining policies announced in the mini-budget, leading to further instability;[55][56] because of Truss's perceived weakness, he was described by some Conservative MPs and newspapers as the de facto prime minister.[57][58] During this time, Truss became increasingly unpopular with the public, and contributed to a large fall in support for the Conservatives;[59][60] in October, she became the most unpopular prime minister in British history,[24] with her personal approval rating recorded in one survey as nine per cent.[61] She was pilloried in national and international press as a u-turner,[62][63] and a chaotic vote on fracking along with the resignation of Braverman as home secretary compounded a rapid deterioration of confidence in her leadership.[64] On 19 October, in response to a question by the leader of the opposition, Keir Starmer, Truss said that she was a "fighter and not a quitter", quoting a 2001 phrase by Peter Mandelson.[65]

Shortly before noon on 20 October, Truss's forty-fifth day in office, Brady held a meeting with Truss where she asked if she would be able to remain in office;[55][66] his response was "I don't think so, Prime Minister".[66] At 1:35 pm, Truss announced her resignation as the leader of the Conservative Party and as prime minister. She gave the following 89-second-long statement:

I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability. Families and businesses were worried about how to pay their bills. Putin's illegal war in Ukraine threatens the security of our whole continent. And our country has been held back by for too long by low economic growth. I was elected by the Conservative Party with a mandate to change this. We delivered on energy bills and on cutting National Insurance. And we set out a vision for a low-tax, high-growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit. I recognise though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party. I have therefore spoken to His Majesty the King to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party. This morning I met the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady. We've agreed there will be a leadership election to be completed within the next week. This will ensure that we remain on a path to deliver our fiscal plans and maintain our country's economic stability and national security. I will remain as prime minister until a successor has been chosen. Thank you.[67]

Resigning on her fiftieth day, Truss became the shortest-serving prime minister in British history, surpassing George Canning, who was prime minister for 119 days in 1827.[68][n 2] The short length of her premiership was the subject of much ridicule, including a livestream of a head of lettuce, started the week prior, which invited viewers to speculate whether Truss would resign before the lettuce wilted.[69]

Campaign

Penny Mordaunt and Rishi Sunak were the only two candidates to stand in the contest. As a result of Mordaunt's withdrawal, Sunak won the leadership contest unopposed.

On 20 October, Rishi Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer who came second in the September leadership election, Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons who came third, and Boris Johnson, who was the leader and prime minister before Truss, were seen as the most likely candidates.[70]

On 20 October, the online bookmaker Betfair listed Sunak as the favourite to become the new Conservative Party leader with odds of 11/10, with Mordaunt second at 7/2, Wallace third at 8/1, Hunt fourth at 9/1 and Johnson fifth at 13/1.[71]

While many MPs supported Johnson, others said they would not serve under him if he were elected.[72] Mordaunt was reported to be taking soundings as to whether she should run on the evening of 20 October and morning of 21 October.[73] On the afternoon of 21 October she became the first candidate to announce her intention to run.[74][70] By the morning of 22 October, Sunak's supporters said he had passed the nomination threshold of 100 MPs, although he had yet to formally launch his campaign.[75][76] Johnson flew back from a holiday in the Dominican Republic on the morning of Saturday 22 October,[77][78] and by that afternoon, Johnson supporters said that he had sufficient nominations too.[73][79] Reports of Johnson reaching the nomination threshold, which were later confirmed as being true by Sir Graham Brady,[80] were met with scepticism by some Sunak supporters,[73][81] who challenged the Johnson camp to release the names of his supporters.[82][83] On the evening of 22 October, Sunak and Johnson met, although what they discussed was not disclosed.[84][85]

On the afternoon of 23 October, Sunak declared he would stand in the contest.[86][87] Sunak was backed by several cabinet members and prominent party members, such as Lord Frost, Kemi Badenoch, Nadhim Zahawi, Matt Hancock, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Ben Wallace, Priti Patel, Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Gove, and Dominic Raab. On the afternoon of the same day, Johnson spoke to Penny Mordaunt, with press speculation being that she had rejected an offer asking her to drop out of the leadership contest and back him.[88][89] Later that day, Johnson said he would not be standing.[90]

On the afternoon on 24 October, Mordaunt pulled out of the race after being unable to get the nominations of 100 MPs by the deadline.[91][92] As a result of Mordaunt's withdrawal, Sunak won the leadership contest unopposed, and became the leader of the Conservative Party.[93][6] It was the first time a candidate won a leadership election for one of the two main parties unopposed since Gordon Brown won the Labour Party leadership election to succeed Tony Blair in 2007. In his victory speech, Sunak paid tribute to Truss and said that she "was not wrong" to want to implement growth and "admired her restlessness to create change", but admitted that "some mistakes were made" and promised to place economic stability and confidence at the heart of his government's agenda.

Election process

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In her resignation statement on 20 October, Truss stated that the election would be completed "within the next week".[94][95] Graham Brady set out an expedited process. Candidates were required to obtain nominations from at least 100 MPs before the nomination deadline at 2 pm on 24 October. With 357 Conservative MPs at the time of election, this meant there could have only been, at most, three candidates.[96]

Had three candidates reached the nomination threshold, a ballot of Conservative MPs would have been held to eliminate one that afternoon.[97] An indicative vote by Conservative MPs between the final two would have then been held. Subsequently, there would have been an online ballot of Conservative Party members to choose between the two remaining candidates. This would have opened on Tuesday 25 October and closed at 11 am on Friday 28 October.[98] If two candidates had reached the nomination threshold, there would have been an indicative vote by MPs, then an online members' vote, with the same schedule.

As only Rishi Sunak received the nominations required by Monday 24 October, he automatically became party leader.

The timetable was much shorter than the previous leadership election, with a higher bar for nominations. These changes, and the addition of an indicative vote by MPs between two final candidates, were introduced to narrow the field more quickly and reduce the probability that a ballot of party members would be required.[99]

Candidates

Declared

Candidate Political office and constituency Date declared Ref.

Rishi Sunak 		Chancellor of the Exchequer (2020–2022)
MP for Richmond (Yorks) (2015–present) 		23 October 2022 [86][6][93]

Withdrawn

Penny Mordaunt declared her intention to stand for leadership but subsequently withdrew from the race.

Candidate Political office and constituency Date declared Date withdrew Ref.

Penny Mordaunt 		Leader of the House of Commons (2022–present)
MP for Portsmouth North (2010–present) 		21 October 2022 24 October 2022 [74][92]

Explored

Boris Johnson initially explored a possible candidacy for the leadership but subsequently declined to stand.

Candidate Political office and constituency Date declined Ref.

Boris Johnson 		Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (2019–2022)
MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip (2015–2023) 		23 October 2022 [100][101]

Declined

The following Conservative Party politicians were suggested by commentators as potential candidates for the leadership but declined to stand:

Endorsements

MP public endorsements
Candidate Endorsements %
Rishi Sunak 197 55.1
Boris Johnson 62 17.3
Penny Mordaunt 27 7.5
No endorsement 71 19.8

Note: Some endorsements are repeated due to MPs changing support after withdrawal.

Aftermath

Sunak giving his first speech as prime minister on 25 October

Sunak was elected unopposed to succeed Truss as leader of the Conservative Party on 24 October and the next day advised the King to appoint him as the new prime minister;[121][122] Sunak went on to further reverse many of the economic measures she had made as prime minister but retained Hunt as chancellor.[123] In his victory speech, Sunak paid tribute to Truss and said that she "was not wrong" to want to implement growth and "admired her restlessness to create change", but admitted that "some mistakes were made" and promised to place economic stability and confidence at the heart of his government's agenda.

Responses

While Sunak polled better than Truss, opinion polling continued to show the Conservatives losing to Labour shortly after Sunak became leader.[124][125]

Following Sunak's cabinet reshuffle, a Downing Street source said "it reflects a unified party and a cabinet with significant experience".[126] Many Conservative members were critical of the election, due to the lack of a members' vote and the unopposed candidate, characterising it as anti-democratic.[127][neutrality is disputed] Certain Tory MPs were unconvinced by the election, and stated that factionalism within the party was unlikely to disappear. Particularly, many Boris Johnson supporters felt cheated as they had voiced their vocal opposition to Sunak.[128]

The election has been characterised as undemocratic in an opinion piece by a Liverpool Echo journalist,[129] by those on the left according to Time,[130] by Tortoise Media who plan to mount a legal challenge,[131] and by opposition parties (including the Scottish National Party) as they call for a general election.[132] The Labour Party (and specifically Keir Starmer) called for an early general election.[133][134] Immediately following the election a poll conducted by Ipsos found that 62% of respondents wanted a general election.[135]

Polling

Conservative members

Multi-candidate polling
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Kemi
Badenoch 		Suella
Braverman 		Michael
Gove 		Jeremy
Hunt 		Boris
Johnson 		Penny
Mordaunt 		Grant
Shapps 		Rishi
Sunak 		Tom
Tugendhat 		Ben
Wallace 		Nadhim
Zahawi 		Others Don't know
20 Oct Liz Truss announces her resignation as leader of the Conservative Party and as Prime Minister
17–18 Oct 2022 YouGov N/A 530 Conservative members 8% 3% 1% 7% 32% 9% 0% 23% 1% 10% 1% 2% 2%
Liz Truss resignation polling
Date(s)

conducted

Pollster/client Sample size Should resign Should not resign Neither Don't know Margin
17–18 Oct 2022 YouGov 530 Conservative members 55% 38% — 7% −17%
218 Truss supporters 39% 57% — 4% +18%
173 Sunak supporters 72% 17% — 11% −55%

2019 Conservative voters

Multi-candidate polling
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Kemi
Badenoch 		Suella
Braverman 		Jeremy
Hunt 		Boris
Johnson 		Penny
Mordaunt 		Rishi
Sunak 		Ben
Wallace 		Others Don't know
19–21 Oct 2022 Opinium N/A 1,549 — — 10% — 19% 45% 11% — 14%
20 October 2022 PeoplePolling[136] GB News 367 3% 2% 2% 38% 4% 20% 2% 7% 21%
20 October 2022 Savanta ComRes[137] N/A 1,094 — 2% — 41% 8% 25% 4% 4%
Others
 		15%

General population

Head-to-head polling
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Boris
Johnson 		Penny
Mordaunt 		Rishi
Sunak 		Others Don't know
23 October 2022 Boris Johnson publicly declines to stand in the election
23 October 2022 Opinium N/A 1,005 British voters 27% — 45% — 27%
20–21 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 2,000 British voters 36% — 37% — 27%
20–21 Oct 2022 Opinium N/A 1,350 British voters 33% 36% — — 31%
31% — 44% — 25%
— 23% 45% — 32%
Multi-candidate polling
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Kemi
Badenoch 		Suella
Braverman 		Jeremy
Hunt 		Boris
Johnson 		Penny
Mordaunt 		Rishi
Sunak 		Ben
Wallace 		Others Don't know
19–21 Oct 2022 Opinium N/A 1,350 British voters — — 12% — 14% 38% 10% — 25%
20 October 2022 Savanta ComRes[137] N/A 1,094 British voters — 2% — 21% 8% 26% 6% 8%
Others
 		30%
20 October 2022 PeoplePolling[136] GB News 1,237 British voters 2% 1% 2% 16% 5% 19% 2% 11% 41%
20 Oct Liz Truss announces her resignation as leader of the Conservative Party and as Prime Minister
18–19 Oct 2022 Opinium ITV's Peston TBA — 2% 7% 17% 8% 25% 7% — 31%
14–16 Oct 2022 Portland Communications[failed verification] N/A 1,511 British voters — — 5% 16% 5% 21% 3% — 50%

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